taabru45
Enlightened Member
At $1200, 1500 when all was said and done....it still was a borderline accomplishment....at $5000 I'd have to come over to your house to get the experience of playing it.... :lol: :lol: Steffan
High prices of the new Guilds; maybe should shop around.
- Thread starter Dennis M
- Start date
West R Lee
Venerated Member
taabru45 said:
Sorry, no $5000 guitars here.
West
learnintoplay62
Senior Member
Interesting take on how Fender is showing it's hand. I think a lot of peoples opinions are driven by emotion ( as with all purchases) however, I'm sure Fender has a well laid out plan with plenty of financial backing. They would not and should not be playing with the big unless their bean counters and marketers gave them the green light. They have a great product for the entry level, a great product for the high end and a soon to come mid product . All the basis are covered. The only aspect that they can't control is the economy. But, I am sure that was calculated in the business plan. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. On another note, I found it odd that they would close the Tacoma plant, which was up and running, move east where the salaries are the highest, find new employees, train them, re tool, implement new products, come up with suppliers and distributors, hire new sales people and marketing etc... By my estimation I would figure enough cash flow for 3 years at least, before they would start seeing a dent.
Things are changing, I am seeing new adds in guitar magazines as well as popular bands using Guilds. The only draw back so far is the lack of availability, which hopefully will change.
The market will bear itself out at some point. I think we are seeing that with the prices increasing on used Guilds, that is what keeps the prices up on new Martins ? Here's a question, in 5 or 10 years when there won't be many Westerlies, Tacomas or Coronas around, will we be having the same discussion?
LTP62
Things are changing, I am seeing new adds in guitar magazines as well as popular bands using Guilds. The only draw back so far is the lack of availability, which hopefully will change.
The market will bear itself out at some point. I think we are seeing that with the prices increasing on used Guilds, that is what keeps the prices up on new Martins ? Here's a question, in 5 or 10 years when there won't be many Westerlies, Tacomas or Coronas around, will we be having the same discussion?
LTP62
I have recently bought some things for which I didn't factor in resale value at purchase time. In one case, it was a screaming deal on a new car that I bought strictly based on current value in a depressed economy. In several cases of instruments, I've bought examples of the best I could afford in order to support American/local-made stuff. There's a brass instrument manufacturer locally who I've been supporting (trumpets) and in one case my purchase helped pay a friend's mortgage. A good feeling. No thoughts of resale, as there's no market yet to even judge... Of course, I'm waiting to buy a NH Guild too when the Standard Series comes out.
It does happen, but for just about every big-ticket item I've ever bought resale has been a major factor.
In all honesty, guys, I think it's impossible to judge what resale is going to be in the future for NH Guilds. Prognosticating on the situation 10 years down the road is an interesting discussion, but there aren't any facts to really hang your hat on. Case in point, using Corona and Tacoma as examples, we've had real issues to deal with in the used market so the table has not been set properly... And, as far as Westerly is concerned, the sheer volume of guitars will probably always vastly overshadow NH production. We'll see, right?
It does happen, but for just about every big-ticket item I've ever bought resale has been a major factor.
In all honesty, guys, I think it's impossible to judge what resale is going to be in the future for NH Guilds. Prognosticating on the situation 10 years down the road is an interesting discussion, but there aren't any facts to really hang your hat on. Case in point, using Corona and Tacoma as examples, we've had real issues to deal with in the used market so the table has not been set properly... And, as far as Westerly is concerned, the sheer volume of guitars will probably always vastly overshadow NH production. We'll see, right?
devellis
Member
Lots of interesting points.
Do we know that Guilds aren't selling well? That's not the impression I have. Very few dealers have them in stock. Is that because they never stock them or because they turn them over quickly? Undoubtedly, some of both. When I was looking to buy my F512, I talked to several dealers who had one in stock and discounts were pretty hard to find. That doesn't seem to me like they're not finding a market.
I agree, though, that more advertising and artist endorsements would help. Personally, an artist endorsement wouldn't influence me in the least. If it did, I'd have a Takamine or a Gibson. But it does influence many people and has helped Takamine and Gibson move a lot of units.
Although moving Guild up-market isn't going to win over all of us at LTG, who are unusually knowledgeable regarding earlier Guilds that can still be had at a great price, I'm not sure that it's such a bad strategy. Guild can't sell new product at a price comparable to used and make any money. There are actually a pretty substantial number of people willing to pay a few grand for a nice guitar. If I were building guitars, that's the market segment I'd want to tap into. There's probably less competition there than at the lower end of the price scale and the GADs have the low end covered.
Guild has gotten some good reviews on their new product. I think that's helpful and if I were them, I'd be encouraging every guitar magazine to evaluate Guild guitars. Actually, if I were them, I would have invited Jason Verlinde or Michale Simmons of Fretboard Journal to the Let's Meet Guild event. That's the kind of publication outlet that the higher-end guitar consumers will take seriously. Guild has a great story to tell. I think it would be hard now to convince FJ to do an article because Vintage Guitar and others have already covered that turf. Vintage Guitar strikes me as exactly the wrong place for Guild publicity. The readership prefers vintage guitars. Why would they go after new Guilds and turn their backs on the large supply of "vintage" Guilds out there?
The most effective ad campaign I can imagine would have younger guitarists and long-time Guild players in the same ad. For example, imagine some up-and-coming player whose well-known to younger players telling Richie Havens that he was influenced by his playing and has chosen to play a Guild based on the amazing music Richie created on it. There could be a whole series of ads with young players paying tribute to old-timers -- living or deceased. Guys like John Denver and Mississippi John Hurt could be used (although permissions would be an issue). Young players aren't soured on Martins because Bob Dylan played one. They just want to be reassured that he wasn't the last pro to pick one up. Richie Havens isn't a liability, his currency just needs to be sweetened with a linkage to contemporary players. And I'm confident that there are good, popular young players who know about and revere some of the older guys who played Guilds. The biggest downside I see is that few of the many luminaries who played Guilds played them exclusively.
We'll all have to wait and see how it all plays out but I think Guild has more ideas and opportunities than we may be inclined to think. Of course, I could be completely wrong.
Do we know that Guilds aren't selling well? That's not the impression I have. Very few dealers have them in stock. Is that because they never stock them or because they turn them over quickly? Undoubtedly, some of both. When I was looking to buy my F512, I talked to several dealers who had one in stock and discounts were pretty hard to find. That doesn't seem to me like they're not finding a market.
I agree, though, that more advertising and artist endorsements would help. Personally, an artist endorsement wouldn't influence me in the least. If it did, I'd have a Takamine or a Gibson. But it does influence many people and has helped Takamine and Gibson move a lot of units.
Although moving Guild up-market isn't going to win over all of us at LTG, who are unusually knowledgeable regarding earlier Guilds that can still be had at a great price, I'm not sure that it's such a bad strategy. Guild can't sell new product at a price comparable to used and make any money. There are actually a pretty substantial number of people willing to pay a few grand for a nice guitar. If I were building guitars, that's the market segment I'd want to tap into. There's probably less competition there than at the lower end of the price scale and the GADs have the low end covered.
Guild has gotten some good reviews on their new product. I think that's helpful and if I were them, I'd be encouraging every guitar magazine to evaluate Guild guitars. Actually, if I were them, I would have invited Jason Verlinde or Michale Simmons of Fretboard Journal to the Let's Meet Guild event. That's the kind of publication outlet that the higher-end guitar consumers will take seriously. Guild has a great story to tell. I think it would be hard now to convince FJ to do an article because Vintage Guitar and others have already covered that turf. Vintage Guitar strikes me as exactly the wrong place for Guild publicity. The readership prefers vintage guitars. Why would they go after new Guilds and turn their backs on the large supply of "vintage" Guilds out there?
The most effective ad campaign I can imagine would have younger guitarists and long-time Guild players in the same ad. For example, imagine some up-and-coming player whose well-known to younger players telling Richie Havens that he was influenced by his playing and has chosen to play a Guild based on the amazing music Richie created on it. There could be a whole series of ads with young players paying tribute to old-timers -- living or deceased. Guys like John Denver and Mississippi John Hurt could be used (although permissions would be an issue). Young players aren't soured on Martins because Bob Dylan played one. They just want to be reassured that he wasn't the last pro to pick one up. Richie Havens isn't a liability, his currency just needs to be sweetened with a linkage to contemporary players. And I'm confident that there are good, popular young players who know about and revere some of the older guys who played Guilds. The biggest downside I see is that few of the many luminaries who played Guilds played them exclusively.
We'll all have to wait and see how it all plays out but I think Guild has more ideas and opportunities than we may be inclined to think. Of course, I could be completely wrong.
West R Lee
Venerated Member
devellis said:
Hey Bob, did you ever do advertising? Great ideas.
West
fronobulax
Bassist, GAD and the Hot Mess Mods
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West R Lee said:I'm still trying to decide what your logic is Frono? Price shouldn't be a consideration? :? Gosh, we don't get the Wall Street Journal way down here.
West
The point was about resale value, not price and I tried to use white space to separate two distinct thoughts rather than double post...
I know some folks who can smuggle Wall Street Journals into Texas if you need them. They are looking for a new gig because the Texans have all the Bibles they need. I was trying to politely ask if all the folks who seem to know about how Fender should run the Guild marketing campaign have any idea WTF they were talking about or merely expressing opinions without substance. I have no problem with opinion without substance - I am guilty of that way more than most posters here - but I am trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Still haven't found my meds. I probably should just go off and raise a virtual Stoly with CapnJuan or Balvenie with Chas and TwoDogs. And here's to you too, West. :wink:
West R Lee
Venerated Member
fronobulax said:West R Lee said:I'm still trying to decide what your logic is Frono? Price shouldn't be a consideration? :? Gosh, we don't get the Wall Street Journal way down here
West
The point was about resale value, not price and I tried to use white space to separate two distinct thoughts rather than double post...
I know some folks who can smuggle Wall Street Journals into Texas if you need them. They are looking for a new gig because the Texans have all the Bibles they need. I was trying to politely ask if all the folks who seem to know about how Fender should run the Guild marketing campaign have any idea WTF they were talking about or merely expressing opinions without substance. I have no problem with opinion without substance - I am guilty of that way more than most posters here - but I am trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Still haven't found my meds. I probably should just go off and raise a virtual Stoly with CapnJuan or Balvenie with Chas and TwoDogs. And here's to you too, West. :wink:
Hey Frono, I seem to have run across a generous supply of meds here lately. They make me crazy though :shock: :shock: :shock: ....just make a bad situation worse. :lol: Actually, they haven't helped any more than a couple of Advil.
I don't know if you've read between the lines there, or even in them, but the bottom line of my posts are not that I wish to see Fender fail, quite the contrary, I want so badly for them to succeed, I just don't understand personally how they go about succeeding with the course they are on. I'll leave it to much smarter people though. And I do try to base the things I say here on things that I've heard, seen or read. Obviously some of it is speculation, but unless you have your hands on the controls, that's the best you or I can do, an educated guess.
I was thinking of drinking a cold Corona, it's been a while and it's aweful hot down here.....would you care for one? :wink:
West
:waves sloshing glass of Balvenie Doublewood at Frono:
guildzilla
Senior Member
Lots of interesting points made in this thread.
The economic downturn caught FMIC in the middle of its 2008 Guild move from Tacoma to New Hartford. One of FMIC's statements explaining the move was (paraphrasing) "to better meet the worldwide demand for Guild guitars." Perhaps it was always their intention to do that by making fewer of them. No way I'll ever know whether the current level of production was the original plan, or a scaled-back survival mode version of the original.
Interestingly, the New Hartford concept is not as boutique-ish an approach as the Bob Bennedetto partnership and Guild Custom Shop were. But they are focused on a limited segment of the former Guild product line, traditional acoustics only, from the D-40 and up.
And Westerly was certainly building a wide array of special, high end guitars even before the FMIC purchase in 1995. D-100's, JF-100's, DV-72's, etc. I think Guild has always tried to compete at the upper end of the spectrum (just under the custom builders).
We've done a lot of comparing of prices/models between Guild and Gibson, Martin, Taylor, etc.
I pulled out my copy of the 2001 Guild price list (the last year at Westerly). I don't think the current New Harford models are all that outrageously priced, compared to the following MSRP's from 2001:
D-100 $3,999
Valencia $4,299
JF-55-12 $2,599
D-55 $2,499
JF-55 $2,499
JF-65-12 $2,499
JF-65 $2,399
F-65CE $2,299
The higher New Hartford MSRP's may be a little above inflation (and may be too high for a difficult market), but, comparing Guild 2001 to Guild 2010, the increases don't seem off the charts to me.
Most of you know that I've been very critical of everything FMIC has done with Guild since the closing of Westerly. That said, the damage is done. They've shrunk Guild back to its roots in terms of number of units and narrowed its market focus to traditional acoustics. I suppose you could say that's as good a place as any to refocus, survive and develop a plan to build it back up.
The economic downturn caught FMIC in the middle of its 2008 Guild move from Tacoma to New Hartford. One of FMIC's statements explaining the move was (paraphrasing) "to better meet the worldwide demand for Guild guitars." Perhaps it was always their intention to do that by making fewer of them. No way I'll ever know whether the current level of production was the original plan, or a scaled-back survival mode version of the original.
Interestingly, the New Hartford concept is not as boutique-ish an approach as the Bob Bennedetto partnership and Guild Custom Shop were. But they are focused on a limited segment of the former Guild product line, traditional acoustics only, from the D-40 and up.
And Westerly was certainly building a wide array of special, high end guitars even before the FMIC purchase in 1995. D-100's, JF-100's, DV-72's, etc. I think Guild has always tried to compete at the upper end of the spectrum (just under the custom builders).
We've done a lot of comparing of prices/models between Guild and Gibson, Martin, Taylor, etc.
I pulled out my copy of the 2001 Guild price list (the last year at Westerly). I don't think the current New Harford models are all that outrageously priced, compared to the following MSRP's from 2001:
D-100 $3,999
Valencia $4,299
JF-55-12 $2,599
D-55 $2,499
JF-55 $2,499
JF-65-12 $2,499
JF-65 $2,399
F-65CE $2,299
The higher New Hartford MSRP's may be a little above inflation (and may be too high for a difficult market), but, comparing Guild 2001 to Guild 2010, the increases don't seem off the charts to me.
Most of you know that I've been very critical of everything FMIC has done with Guild since the closing of Westerly. That said, the damage is done. They've shrunk Guild back to its roots in terms of number of units and narrowed its market focus to traditional acoustics. I suppose you could say that's as good a place as any to refocus, survive and develop a plan to build it back up.
fungusyoung
Senior Member
fronobulax said:
Yeah, that is WAY too strong of an analogy.
In my experience, a player's acoustic guitar choice is a very personal preference. It's not like you just "know" what you want from the get-go in many scenarios. We're talking variety of body shapes, sizes, woods, etc. Player tastes also form and evolve over time as they find their voice. Some guitars also form issues over time, which require $ to maintain vs. the sometimes easier decision to unload them. All of this obviously leads to guitar sales. There's dozens of other reasons too, but I don't understand why anyone would buy something & think it will realistically last a lifetime. How can you know that the day you buy it? If you do & it works out, I'd say you're pretty damn lucky.
I didn't buy my D25, D15, D17, JF30-12, A25, DV52, F30-R or GF30 with the thought of selling them in mind! I just pared down the herd to a much more sensible/manageable level in recent years. In the process I learned to hone in on what I really wanted & needed. For me, that's now down from almost a dozen acoustics to 3... a '73 F112, a '98 DV6 & an '03 000-15 (Martin). I miss a lot of things about each one of those Guilds I sold, but all of them were the right moves for me personally with the possible exception of the F30-R.
I realize I may be an excessive case, but ultimately I think it proves that there are very legitimate reasons for selling very nice guitars that just are not the "perfect" one for you. Life's too short.
The fact is that the resale value of Guilds has been an issue historically especially compared to the premier builders/selllers, namely Martin, Gibson & Taylor. IMHO, it's simply unrealistic to believe a current Guild D50 will retain its value like a D28. That's all I was trying to say about resale values, and I don't think that point can be refuted. The good thing for D50 owners... if they're content & will be for a while, it sounds like they're getting a helluva guitar for that price point. For their sake, I just hope they're always happy with it & don't end up wanting to move it.
In my mind, Guild now wants to be a home run hitter during the year of the pitcher. My feeling is they should have been going for consistent base hits instead of trying to knock everything out of the park. Guild was never a home run hitting brand. So, this current path makes no sense to me, just how FMIC's 20- 40% price hikes several months ago didn't make any sense to me. Sorry, but I simply do not trust FMIC, and I'm genuinely concerned (as I know West is) that they could destroy the Guild brand for good if they're not careful here. They're a big company, and big companies pull plugs fast if $ isn't made. There's not a lot of people in businesses this large that think about much aside from immediate and substantial profits. That will take both substantial sales and a market presence, and both of those appear to need quite a bit of work. It seems pretty clear that their distribution is sorely lacking, too. Frankly, I could find Tacoma Guilds easier than New Hartfords.
I feel like there should have been some baby steps taken in NH to get the plant & the Guild brand's reputation off the ground. They could have been going after the coveted $800- $1500 market to establish some presence in the market. This would not have involved asking anyone with a legitimate fear of the unknown to invest several month's salary into a much larger & riskier purchase. Focusing on only the high end to start out just strikes me as a very odd move... especially given Guild's history.
FYI: I'll be married 20 years in February. :mrgreen:
West R Lee
Venerated Member
This really is a good and very candid discussion, I've enjoyed it. I hope we've shed some light for Dennis M. A lot of good insight and I've enjoyed reading other's opinions.
West
West
fronobulax said:
Cheers to you as well, Frono. I don't read the WSJ because I find that stuff kinda boring, but hey, to each his own.
Now Single Malt on the other hand...
Fungie,
There's China and Mexico also making product, and I don't see how you get a facility like New Hartford to compete at that level. I think I understand what you're saying (I hope), but your idea about baby steps and entering the low-cost market and working upward just doesn't ring as practical to me.
What I'm hoping, as we've seen with Martin and Taylor, is the eventual reaching down-market. In fact, I pointed out earlier that some lesser-adorned (and hopefully more competitively-priced) models will be coming out of NH soon in the guise of the Standard Models... These definitely won't compete with GADs, but they might represent more of the traditional value you associate with many of the Westerly models. In the long run, efficiencies and techniques will trickle down into cheaper models.
The other point I want to make is that I believe the management at the New Hartford facility is dedicated and convinced that Guild can succeed. I know that's only part of the equation, but it ain't no "not invented here" thing going on... these guys are the real deal.
Keep smiling, guys... We can still buy our wonderful, old Westerlys at ridiculously low prices (by comparison to those *other* brands), and we can hope that Guild's reputation takes its proper place over time so that our children and grandchildren can get some real coin when they sell off our collections. [spoken by the guy whose apples have most definitely fallen far from the guitar loving/playing tree]
There's China and Mexico also making product, and I don't see how you get a facility like New Hartford to compete at that level. I think I understand what you're saying (I hope), but your idea about baby steps and entering the low-cost market and working upward just doesn't ring as practical to me.
What I'm hoping, as we've seen with Martin and Taylor, is the eventual reaching down-market. In fact, I pointed out earlier that some lesser-adorned (and hopefully more competitively-priced) models will be coming out of NH soon in the guise of the Standard Models... These definitely won't compete with GADs, but they might represent more of the traditional value you associate with many of the Westerly models. In the long run, efficiencies and techniques will trickle down into cheaper models.
The other point I want to make is that I believe the management at the New Hartford facility is dedicated and convinced that Guild can succeed. I know that's only part of the equation, but it ain't no "not invented here" thing going on... these guys are the real deal.
Keep smiling, guys... We can still buy our wonderful, old Westerlys at ridiculously low prices (by comparison to those *other* brands), and we can hope that Guild's reputation takes its proper place over time so that our children and grandchildren can get some real coin when they sell off our collections.
[spoken by the guy whose apples have most definitely fallen far from the guitar loving/playing tree]fungusyoung
Senior Member
Chazmo said:
I won't disparage anyone that's happy with their GAD's or Mexican made DV's, but they are not for me. There are lots of others out there competing in the $800- 1500 range with USA-made products (Martin's 1 series was just re-introduced last year to much acclaim & success... including from a few of their employees that I've spoken with that basically said this has saved the company through some very tough times). Guild could've done this if they wanted to. Of course, I could be totally wrong in thinking that was the safer move, but I don't see the high end as a wise risk right now... particularly since they knew how unstable the economy was when they decided to pretty much exclusively go after this market.
Part of my opinion is clearly tainted based on my own targeted price point. Guild's current line is not even in my ballpark, which makes me think I'm far from the only person thinking along these lines. At the end of the day, I'm with West. We don't want them to fail, but I think we should be concerned & critical since we feel the future of the brand could very well be at stake right now.
fronobulax
Bassist, GAD and the Hot Mess Mods
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Raisin' a virtual glass to Guild with LTG friends.
fungusyoung said:
Well put. And, that is exactly right. While I'll admit to a lot more confidence in Guild after meeting the staff in New Hartford, it is a scary road ahead. We can only hope that as they come to forks in the road, they take them.
[with all due props to Yogi Berra]jgwoods
Member
Is the idea that Guild is going after the high end the market based on the GSR series? I think they built about 60 of them, 20 each of 3 models, hardly enough to say they are abandoning their traditional buyers.
It will be an interesting (read difficult) next few years as the economy is not going to come roaring back.
Gibson tried a "down scale" line of guitars made in North America and abandoned it quickly. They bought the Garrison company in Newfoundland, redesigned their guitars to fit their desires, issued a bunch and then shut the doors. I guess buyer response was poor. All the reviews I saw said they were nice enough, but they weren't Gibsons, didn't sound, look, or feel right. So it might happen with Guild- make a new line of mid-price products that are perfectly nice yet have them go unsold as not the real deal Guilds. As much as anyone we- LTGers- have defined them and what makes them our favorite guitars.
I work for a company that got bought about 10 months ago. It has been a struggle to meet the demands of the new guys and their big corporate ways, but if not for them we would be out of business. I've been there 20 years and the last bit has been the hardest. It may be so with Guild and Fender- like'em or not, the doors are open, excellent guitars with the Guild name can be had, and they have a future yet to come where they might have just shut down in Westerly back in 95 or so.
I do wonder- is it Guilds that we hold in such high regard, or Westerlies, or Tacomas, etc.
I'm a Guild guy.
It will be an interesting (read difficult) next few years as the economy is not going to come roaring back.
Gibson tried a "down scale" line of guitars made in North America and abandoned it quickly. They bought the Garrison company in Newfoundland, redesigned their guitars to fit their desires, issued a bunch and then shut the doors. I guess buyer response was poor. All the reviews I saw said they were nice enough, but they weren't Gibsons, didn't sound, look, or feel right. So it might happen with Guild- make a new line of mid-price products that are perfectly nice yet have them go unsold as not the real deal Guilds. As much as anyone we- LTGers- have defined them and what makes them our favorite guitars.
I work for a company that got bought about 10 months ago. It has been a struggle to meet the demands of the new guys and their big corporate ways, but if not for them we would be out of business. I've been there 20 years and the last bit has been the hardest. It may be so with Guild and Fender- like'em or not, the doors are open, excellent guitars with the Guild name can be had, and they have a future yet to come where they might have just shut down in Westerly back in 95 or so.
I do wonder- is it Guilds that we hold in such high regard, or Westerlies, or Tacomas, etc.
I'm a Guild guy.
jgwoods said:
It depends who you're talking to I suppose. We have our Westerly loyalists here. I own a Guild from every plant except Corona, and I think they're all good.