fungusyoung said:
capnjuan said:
a couple of years ago I bought a used Rickenbacker and was surprised to see how well they held their value; how flat their depreciation curve is.
This is a great point.
Martins, with the exception from the 70's which was "generally" considered to be one of their weaker periods by many CFM purists, hold their values pretty well. There's no doubt that I could sell my 000-15 in 10 minutes for at least what I paid for it new. Contrast that with what I've seen happen with Corona & Tacoma era Guilds... the losses on those are pretty devastating because most consumers know they can get an equivalent Westerly (in most cases) for around half the price. In consideration of a New Haven made Guild, there's simply no way I would roll the dice on one unless I knew I was guaranteed to keep it for at least 10 years because the re-sale value is likely going to be equally brutal.
Guild has a very long ways to go in order to establish themselves as a premium high end builder. Comparisons to Martins with non-adi spruce tops are valid whether people here want to think so or not. Martin doesn't just change the tops on those Marquis models & charge 2 grand more for them... there's more to it than that. But, what is clear, is that a D28 has a formidable & long earned place out there for purchasers of new guitars. It's a gamble in my estimation for Guild to think people considering a new D28 will opt for an equal priced Guild D50. They're both great guitars, but one has a substantial market presence & the other has a very questionable re-sale value.
Guild's association with Fender will also not help given the historical perception of Fender's stabs at the acoustic market to date. Based on the comments here I have no doubts about NH churning out fine guitars, but I do have to question how smart of a move it was to go after this particular place in the market without having an established presence of any sort with the old standbys... particularly in this economy.
Couldn't have said it better myself. When I bought my DV72 and DV72 for $2000 each, there was no doubt in my mind then, nor is there now that I could have gotten my money back on them. Same with my 2001 D55 that I paid $950 for and the beautiful D30 I paid $550 for. I'll even go out on a limb and guess I could make a little money on them. I just can't bring myself to pay $2000-$3000 or more for a guitar that is yet proven to me. Why should I go out and spend $3000 on a koa guitar when New Hartford may be closed in a year (I sincerely hope they're not)? Then what is my limited edition koa guitar worth? That is what I'm referring to when I refer to VALUE.
And I can hear the arguement coming, "Well, are you buying a guitar for an investment, or are you buying it to play?" The answer is both. I want something I love to play that will hold it's value, and for the sake of variety, if I can afford it, I might want a few of them. Furthermore, it's in Fender's best interest to try and cater to guys that own more than one guitar, not somebody that buys that one, love of his life, guitar becuase that's all he'll ever need. I would think Fender would like nothing better than to cater to a whole bunch of Grots :wink: . But it's pretty hard to buy a bunch of guitars when they're priced sky high.
To me, Fender has jumped Guild into the market as if they're one of the big boys again. Equal to Martin, Gibson or Taylor. They may very well be equal guitars in terms of quality and tone, but John Q. Public doesn't know that yet. This is exactly what the dealer in Shreveport was telling me. Or is Guild counting on all of us old guys that remember what Guild WAS to carry them through? Now throw in all the great buys on used Guilds that are so appealing to us old guys into the equation......hmmm. Or is Guild trying to appeal to the younger crowd? You know, the kids coming up? Welp, the youngesr crowd has never heard of Guild........I've seen that with my own eyes and heard it with my ears so many times. Do those kids know Martin, Gibson and Taylor?.........just watch them light up when you mention the brands. They can't even go to their local music store and play a Guild if they wanted to, not in most parts of the country......but we'll order one for you :? :? :? ....order what? I thought I might be able to play one first. :shock:
I'm no business man, never have been.....and this is my very, very humble opinion, but what Guild needs to do, and I've said this many times before, is to reestablish themselves as that premier brand though advertisement and putting them in the hands of folks who are seen with them. Nothing makes me want to go out and buy a particular guitar like a good music video with a great guitar featured in it......nothing. Then after they begin to slowly come back with more reasonable prices, they can command the high dollar prices they're asking. Personally, especially in this economy, I think Fender is about to get Guild in a pickle again.....and I think if it happens again, Guild won't be back. I hope I'm very wrong. I hope they are prolific and enormously successful. I'll put my love for the brand up against that of any member of this board :wink: . Having said that, I'll go out on a limb right here and now and predict that if Fender doesn't lower their price point of Guild guitars, if they don't get them into the hands of highly visible musicians, if they don't change their marketing strategy and find a way to cater to young musicians, and if this economy doesn't improve, they won't be in business in a couple of years.....very sad, but very true.
West