Covid vaccine

[Qvart]

From what I've read the current vaccines are at least partially effective against known new COVID variants. The virus will keep mutating, though, so we're gonna have to keep on top of it with periodically tweaked vaccines or even new ones.

-Dave-

It may end up being a scenario like the seasonal flu - there are so many variants we just have to pick the ones that are the most likely to spread through the population and vaccinate against those.

 

[Default]

OFFS, Qvart. I am so terribly sorry!

 

[dreadnut]

I expect a booster vaccine will be required yearly.

When I was a kid we took a polio vaccine that was soaked into a sugar cube, as I recall.

 

[Cougar]

Now we should all know that some will butt in line, it's what we do. Some will get caught, some will not, never the less, nothing will happen to the ones that get caught, it's what we don't do, anymore.

Actually, it's not like that. My local health district apparently got more vaccine than Tier 1 people who came in to get it. So rather than waste it, they put out a call for 65 and older. I've heard the Tier 1, Tier 2 schedule is just suggested by the CDC, and the local districts can do whatever just so vaccine is not wasted. So I was fortunate to be able to go in and get one. Pfizer. I had no reaction whatsoever, not even a sore arm. I go back in a week and a half for the second shot.

 

[dreadnut]

Yes, and each state is working their own program for distribution of the vaccine. Counting on my fellow Americans to get this job done!

 

[DrumBob]

I managed to get my first shot on Saturday. Next one in 28 days or thereabouts.

 

[DrumBob]

I have been scheduled for my second shot on February 16. Vaccinations are going fairly smoothly here in Sussex County, but I know the rollout and administering of shots has been botched in other areas. The problem is, there's no standard operating procedure, and health care providers have no precedent to fall back on. It's all very new, and they are taking this day by day and doing the best they can.

Things will get better. Keep trying to make appointments with your county or state health departments and don't give up.

 

[Bernie]

When is the vaccine's benefit expected to begin showing within deaths' numbers per day ?

 

[fronobulax]

When is the vaccine's benefit expected to begin showing within deaths' numbers per day ?

Depending upon which mathematical model of the pandemic you choose to use, the number of new infections is expected to decline when 50-80% of the population has been vaccinated. The death rate is obviously related to the number of infections. There is anecdotal evidence that if you are vaccinated and the vaccine doesn't work your symptoms will be less life-threatening compared to not having the vaccine but none of the models I have looked at are trying to include that yet. In the US there is also evidence that some Covid deaths are due to the health care system being overwhelmed so a decline in deaths can occur if health care expands, with or without vaccines.

If you want a time, the US entities that I am aware of that are planning for a time when people can gather safely and activities can resume, are targeting September, 2021. That is based upon infection and vaccination rates and not death rates.

 

[Stuball48]

Depending upon which mathematical model of the pandemic you choose to use, the number of new infections is expected to decline when 50-80% of the population has been vaccinated. The death rate is obviously related to the number of infections. There is anecdotal evidence that if you are vaccinated and the vaccine doesn't work your symptoms will be less life-threatening compared to not having the vaccine but none of the models I have looked at are trying to include that yet. In the US there is also evidence that some Covid deaths are due to the health care system being overwhelmed so a decline in deaths can occur if health care expands, with or without vaccines.

If you want a time, the US entities that I am aware of that are planning for a time when people can gather safely and activities can resume, are targeting September, 2021. That is based upon infection and vaccination rates and not death rates.

Since I joined this LTG forum, I have read these articles, daily, and yours I never skip. If I were asked to choose one positive word to describe you, it would be "bookie." You do extra research. Thank you

 

[Nuuska]

Question

Over here when person dies - there can be more reasons at the same time

I do not know these term in english - nor am I dr of medicine in Finland - but here goes

- the obvious reason - like in car crah or shooting etc - this one is clear.
- the actual reason - like heart failing - but that failing is accelerated by other reason - like corona.
- the affecting reason - like weakness because old enough - underlaying other deceases etc - the sum of all is too much.
- other possibilities - allergies - sensitivities - combinations of ???

From this follows, that some of the deaths that are marked to be corona deaths could as well be something else - i.e. the person would have died anyway maybe only a week or a month later without corona.

But as soon the call me in for vaccination - I'll make a beeline to it. Meanwhile I just try to avoid places.

 

[F312]

For some reason we are going for a high head count.

Ralph

 

[geoguy]

My understanding is that the "cause of death" is whatever primarily led to the person's passing.

So, if someone died from respiratory failure due to Covid-19 but also had heart disease and diabetes, their death would be attributed primarily to Covid-19.

Their heart disease and diabetes were complicating factors that may have made them more vulnerable to infection by the virus, but were conditions that did not directly result in death.

 

[fronobulax]

Question

Over here when person dies - there can be more reasons at the same time

I do not know these term in english - nor am I dr of medicine in Finland - but here goes

- the obvious reason - like in car crah or shooting etc - this one is clear.
- the actual reason - like heart failing - but that failing is accelerated by other reason - like corona.
- the affecting reason - like weakness because old enough - underlaying other deceases etc - the sum of all is too much.
- other possibilities - allergies - sensitivities - combinations of ???

From this follows, that some of the deaths that are marked to be corona deaths could as well be something else - i.e. the person would have died anyway maybe only a week or a month later without corona.

But as soon the call me in for vaccination - I'll make a beeline to it. Meanwhile I just try to avoid places.

In the US the recorded cause of death is usually the educated opinion of the attending physician. There are often circumstances where a second opinion is required or desired - a "suspicious death" for example - and there can be an autopsy or other post-mortem exam, but not all causes are investigated with the same scientific rigor. That said, many times the attending physician does have laboratory reports and other data to support the determination of cause.

See https://www.ksby.com/news/coronavirus/health-officials-explain-what-determines-a-covid-19-death which addresses some of your comments.

There is clearly some uncertainty, subjective opinion and scientific rigor, or lack thereof, in attributing a death to Covid in the US. Unfortunately the death count has become politicized in the US with claims that the count is being inflated or suppressed for political purposes. Thus at some point the discussion becomes inappropriate for LTG.

 

[fronobulax]

For some reason we are going for a high head count.

Ralph

Might I suggest that discussions of the reasons occur somewhere besides LTG?

 

[Nuuska]

Thanks for answers - seems to be similar than here.

Let's just try to hold the fort for another 6 months or so until vaccinations are taking over this horrible pandemic.

 

[Brad Little]

On a slight tangent, I saw my cardiologist today, and in conversation he mentioned that he had 4 patients this morning who said they wouldn't get the vaccine, one even said because he heard that 1000s had died from reaction to it. That's in a state where almost everyone has adhered to mask and social distancing, can't imagine what it will be like in states where there is resistance to those efforts. FWIW, he said that Yale Medical had administered 30,000 vaccines with only one adverse reaction, no deaths.

 

[gjmalcyon]

The CDC is looking at "excess deaths" - deaths over the statistically-expected number - as a means of getting a handle on the actual number of COVID deaths. That number may be as much as 30% higher than the reported one.

Here's a CDC website that goes into great detail:

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Bernie]

(...)
f you want a time, the US entities that I am aware of that are planning for a time when people can gather safely and activities can resume, are targeting September, 2021. That is based upon infection and vaccination rates and not death rates.

What I'd like to know Frono, and others, is when can we expect a day when we'll have, on a regular basis, less deaths from covid that day, than the day before.
That already would at least bring some hope. So far it almost seems like the more vaccine the less people remaining...(I know it takes time to get immune and more time to be able to see a result over a whole people too).

 

[dreadnut]

My Mom died from chronic paralysis which led to Pneumonia over 20 years ago. She had quit smoking 30 years prior to her death. For some reason, her death certificate states the cause of death as "tobaccoism." Go figure.