the vintage market and the economy

[ac1dt3st]

i've heard from several people online and in person that with the faltering economy, the vintage guitar market has been hit, and the price of vintage guitars is falling, and will continue to do so for a while.

that's a great theory. however, in practice i'm not seeing it. i still find vintage guitars of various brands listed consistently above blue book, and when negotiating with the seller, they'll often drop down to their lowest price that's still above blue book.

as one seller told me, regarding a vintage Gibson semi-hollow he's selling for a minimum of $300 above blue book (and i quote directly from his email to me):

"Yes, it's a very nice one. The book is one thing but finding these guitars and finding them clean is another. I know as I'm one of the people that write the Vintage Guitar price guide."

so, other than the rare steal that crops up on Craig's List from someone cleaning the basement or attic who doesn't know what they have or what it's worth, i'm not personally seeing much of a dent in the vintage market.

is anyone seeing prices actually fall, and has anyone scored a used or vintage guitar for a considerable discount, from a seller who knew what they were selling?

what is everyone's experience with this? just curious...

 

[dapmdave]

It does seem to me that good, older USA-made guitars are holding value. Others, maybe not so much.

The soft economy has certainly brought some nice guitars out of the attics and out from under the beds, though.

I think it's probably a good time to buy, if you can.

Dave

 

[fronobulax]

1) I'm not buying but I can say that the price of Starfire basses from about 1966-1971 has dropped. I'm seeing basses that would have topped $2000 a couple of years ago remaining unsold at $1,600 or thereabouts.

2) I find Blue Books to be an interesting tool but ultimately of little relevance. As a seller no one will offer "Blue Book" because there will always be some difference in condition between the item at hand and the ideal postulated by the Blue Book. As I buyer I have never found anyone (besides a private seller) offering items at below book when they are in Blue Book or better condition. For the Blue Books in areas where I have had knowledge/experience (books and some antiques) I would expect a dealer to offer about half of the Blue Book price to buy and about 125% of the Blue Book to sell, if the Blue Book is even a factor. As a dealer, my offering price is much more likely to depend upon what I paid than what some Blue Book says. But then as a dealer it was never about squeezing the last penny out of every sale for me.

 

[Frosty]

I count a few vintage guitar dealers among my friends and while there was a lull in the number of guitars moving, the prices have not suffered. Talking about guitars that have a market value higher than my Subaru, BTW. :|

 

[dreadnut]

Looks like this '60 Les Paul is holding it's value:

http://www.elderly.com/vintage/items/30U-14093.htm

 

[alpep]

clean guitars that are wanted will always be wanted.
guitars on the second tier will take a hit.

fender amps have taken a big hit.

funny thing is items in the 500 and under range have not dropped at all because people still want to be in the game and they can afford those items. it is the stuff that is in the thousands that has come down some.

everything cycles.

 

[Walter Broes]

From what I can see, the current economic climate might have taken just a little bit of silliness out of the vintage guitar market - things that were obviously overpriced "just because they were vintage" have dropped to slightly more normal prices again.

And plenty of stuff might still be advertised at pre-recession prices, but that doesn't mean it's selling.

 

[Taylor Martin Guild]

I purchased my 2005 D-55 a few months ago for $1250.00 In my opinion, that was a very good price for me.
I did have to have the bridge re-glued for $50.00 so I guess that I can add that to the total.
I put in a fully compensated saddle that I already had, so no extra cost for the set up.

I see a lot of ebay high end guitars are not getting bid on.
To me, that means that people are looking for bargains and not willing to pay top dollor right now.
The exception to this is the occasional Holy Grail guitar that still commands top dollor.

 

[Default]

A lot more BINs though. Doesn't look like anybody's taking a chance on having guitars sell for less than they hoped for.

 

[Qvart]

A lot more BINs though. Doesn't look like anybody's taking a chance on having guitars sell for less than they hoped for.

I probably can't speak as well on the topic as some of you who have been watching Guilds and other vintage guitars longer than I have, but that S-100C with a BIN of $850 seemed strange. Allowed to run the course of a normal auction I imagine it would have sold for more than that.

 

[valcotone]

Well, if you follow vintage 50's-60's Gibsons and Fender solid bodies, you'll find that some have dropped 30-40% or so, on average over the last year or so. With guitars that have issues taking more of a hit than perfect examples. For example, you don't see the the same prices for early Teles, 60's Strats, , Goldtop Les Pauls, Juniors and Specials as 2 years ago for example.... those have all come down a lot. A reasonable '54 Gold Top might go for $20K, while 2 years ago it would have been double. You'll see some dealers still asking $25K for a TV Special, but the ones that seem to sell go for 1/2 or less of that.

I tend to agree that lower-tier vintage stuff seems to have held it's value better.

 

[capnjuan]

Last year, this vgc early Gibson GA40LP would have brought $1,750-$2,000. Last month it started out on CL at $1,450, went to eBay, now going begging at $1,300. Last year's comparables in our Tonequest thread.

 

[alpep]

A lot more BINs though. Doesn't look like anybody's taking a chance on having guitars sell for less than they hoped for.

that is because e bay auction fees are through the roof

 

[guildzilla]

Actually, e-Bay final value fees are significantly higher for fixed price listings (BIN or BIN/Best Offer), compared to auction listings.

Unlike Valco, I don't follow other guitars (Fender, Gibson, Martin) like I follow Guild pricing trends on e-Bay. The price peaks for Guilds on e-Bay, IMO, happened in late winter 2007 and late winter 2008. I would say that Guild prices have slipped an average of 15-20 percent below those peaks. That really isn't too bad, though, compared to the price decline Valco is reporting for vintage Fender and Gibson guitars.

But I think most of us agree that Guilds were never over-valued to begin with.

One thing that has definitely changed is the amount of risk a seller takes listing a Guild guitar in a no-reserve auction. There are fewer bidders and less bidding, IMO. Sellers are declining the risk and using more BIN listings, as Steve notes, or listing with a relatively high starting bid.

I don't think the G-base dealers have lowered their prices to match the trends yet. I also don't think the average asking price of guitars listed on Craigslist have changed much either. And there is an awful lot of wishful thinking on asking prices in all selling forums these days. Again, I'm mainly talking about Guilds.

 

[AlohaJoe]

I think Zilla has it exactly right, and guitars that are priced as high as they were 2 years ago aren't moving. Collectibles in general are off 15-20% (some more) and guitars are no exception, and not just Guilds, but across the board. Part of the downward pressure on prices comes from an abundance of nice instruments and other collectibles being sold off due to a bad economy and at the same time there are fewer buyers with disposable income.

Good time to buy... lousy time to sell.

 

[evenkeel]

I recently read an article in one of the guitar magazines on just this subject. After consulting with auction houses, vintage dealers, etc.. the analysis was the top tier of vintage guitars, '59 Burst, pre war D-45, pre CBS Sunburst strat, original flying V Gibson, etc.. had fallen in value. However, all fell less than the stock market so as an investment these premier guitars were better than an index fund. There was also some evidence that second tier brands and guitars were holding values better as collectors look for bargains.

 

[fronobulax]

However, all fell less than the stock market so as an investment these premier guitars were better than an index fund.

There's a loaded statement. I just hope the folks who consider vintage guitars as investments have already paid off their mortgages, fully funded their IRAs and have as much exposure to the stock and bond market as they can handle Non-financial publications (such as "guitar magazines") tend to underestimate the costs of collectibles as investments. A rational investor in vintage guitars is going to have insurance and/or secure storage and the costs of either are likely to erode the perceived performance difference between collectibles and stocks.

 

[adorshki]

However, all fell less than the stock market so as an investment these premier guitars were better than an index fund.

A rational investor in vintage guitars is going to have insurance and/or secure storage and the costs of either are likely to erode the perceived performance difference between collectibles and stocks.

Good point. Also applies to cars. How much of that asking price at auction/ebay represents those costs? When I list my Chuck Taylor John Lennon Peace Chucks there's gonna be a minimum of 6 years of storage at $5.00/month, there's $360.00 right off the bat before we even get into appraisal value. My advice is don't get into vintage tennis shoes for now. :lol:

 

[southernGuild]

My advice is don't get into vintage tennis shoes for now. :lol:[/quote] THATS SAGE ADVICE! :lol:

 

[jcwu]

My advice is don't get into vintage tennis shoes for now. :lol:

Well if the shoe fits..