I'm not sure I agree with Al completely on this one. What generally takes place is that wood expands and contracts with temperature and humidity. Nitrocellulose lacquer expands and contracts as well when these changes occur, but it can expand and contract at different rates than does wood. Humidity expands wood as dryness contracts it. Though I would agree that most cases of lacquer checking seems to happen due to abrupt temperature changes, most notably when a cold guitar is taken into a warm environment. When that happens, the wood expands at rates different than does the lacquer, and that's how nitro usually cracks. We've heard of cases here where people claim to have opened a guitar in a warm home that was shipped during cold weather and to have seen the finish crack before their eyes. But I feel pretty confident that big swings in humidity could do the same, maybe not so quickly, but definitely over time.
Your Louisiana weather doesn't differ too much from mine in Northeast Texas, and I assure you there is enough temperature and humidity change here to crack a guitar finish. This time of the year, with the central heat running in the house, I case and humidify mine, both to protect the wood and the finish. And you're right, when you see your hands and lips chapped, it's definitely time to humidify. I keep a digital hygrometer that lets me know what the humidity is here in the house, and I keep it where I store my guitars. I also notice this time of the year that if my guitars go a bit without humidification, they get out of tune......in fact, I've picked up buzz before on my guitars with very low action when those guitars were dry. I will say this though, to me, a dry guitar sounds better. I know that may sound funny, but I definitely notice the difference as this time of the year, they sound better before humidification than they do when I refill my humidifiers. But to me, long term preservation is what it's all about. It's also why I only use light gauge strings.
And for the record, I also believe a guitar can be dropped, or fall off a stand for instance, even onto the carpet, and crack the finish. It happened to me right after I bought my JF30. I had it standing on a stand in the carpeted living room at the time, and that sucker was so top heavy, it went right over onto the carpet. A noticeable finish crack appeared immediately. No real damage to the guitar, but it did crack the finish much as you describe.....about 2"-3" long, on the top a bit from the neck, starting at the pick guard and running towards the heel.
West