I would not worry about asking. If I tell the dealer I'd like to try one but am not sure I would buy, I'm being honest. They can say OK or they can ask for a deposit or they can say No. At the very least they know there is interest and the next person who asks, might get a Yes. If you get a No you can always ask if they know someone who has or could get one in stock. They might decide to change their mind.
My dealer in the New Hartford days had some honest discussion with me about his price from Guild. He paid their price and owned the instrument. His capital was tied up until he sold it. He did not get any rebates or cash back for ordering a certain number. So he would not put up capital to stock something on speculation unless there was a chance he could sell it within a couple months.
New Hartford production was believed to be approaching 5000 instruments per year when it was shut down. I think Westerly peaked at about 25,000 in one year, but that included electrics and acoustics. I'd guess Oxnard has not made it to 5,000 per year yet.
For comparison, since Guild was
always the "little guy", I get
this reference when I google "How many guitars does X make in a year?" (note dated '09):
"Martin makes 85,000 guitars a year.
Taylor makes 35,000 guitars a year.
Gibson makes 12,000 acoustic guitars in montana a year.
Santa Cruz makes about 800 guitars a year.
McPherson makes about 250 guitars per year.
Does anyone know some more numbers from companies? Like Breedlove, Ovation, Guild, Larrivee, Seagull, Collings, Froggy Bottom, etc.... "
I see Taylor
cited at 40k MIA pieces/year by '14; that same article from an industry organ cites Martin at about 800,000 pieces from
all sources between '04 and '14 or about 80k/ year, consistent with the previous informal reference, and like Oxnard and New Hartford, Gibson doesn't publish its numbers which are after all proprietary info.
But I stumbled across this article while looking:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-struggling-and-how-to-revive-them-2018-05-04
It brings up some points that contradict speculation made on this forum over the last 3 to 5 years about at least one of the reasons for Fender's and the music industry's financial woes in general:
Contrary to the popular perception, demand for and sales of
guitars is UP!:
"The guitar, however, appears to be in better shape than the guitar maker. While in the past decade, sales of the electric guitar have fallen from 1.5 million to 1 million, according to the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM) a total of 2.6 million guitars, including both acoustic and electric guitars, were sold in the U.S. last year,(2017, my note) 300,000 more than in 2009."
NOW: Let's be incredibly optimistic and assume that Oxnard has somehow achieved a production of 7500 pieces per year in only a couple of years, 50% more than New Hartford's best estimate after almost 5 years....
In a market that's devouring at
least 1.3 million acoustics per year (since they're outnumbering electric sales).
Let's assume they divvy 'em up according to sales hot spots (which necessity is obviated by merchants like Sweetwater but relevant for GC's), lets say 10 states account for 50% of sales, so each of those 10 get 375 guitars, and the rest of 'em get roughly 90 apiece.
One should start counting oneself lucky to lay hands on an Oxnard piece at all.
I'm now quite certain they're selling every single one they can deliver without need for recourse to methods the volume producers may use to maintain their sales volumes or increase brand awareness.
It might even explain why some pieces got shipped with questionable finishes, it might well be the retailers themselves said "Send it anyway!"
And goes a long way towards understanding why they're so hard to find in stock, and why even ordering one could result in a long wait as was seen on some of the first Oxnard models.
Of course if they simply brought back the F47 and opened up a new building to make 'em they could easily double their sales in a year.
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:glee:
