On the possible impact of the NH closing on the used and vintage market

I really don't want to start a new thread, but I am curious. For those who have watched the Guild market for the past 20+ years, would news worthy and unfortunate events like NH closing have an affect on the vintage/used Guild market?

I chose to start a new thread since this is really a new topic and should get different responses and opinions than just the "news" ones.

Before I want to answer, I would like to know what Fender is going to do about Guild acoustics. If models and specs associated with New Hartford go into production elsewhere then I don't see things as very much different from when NH started producing. If, however, the only way to get a D50 is the used and vintage market then I see prices rising in general and the well informed Guild-O-Philes bidding up certain years or factories. This will happen anyway for the time between the NH stock disappearing from stores and the hoped for new plant ramping up, but I don't see it as sustainable, or different, from what Guild has gone through before.

fronobulax said:

This will happen anyway for the time between the NH stock disappearing from stores and the hoped for new plant ramping up, but I don't see it as sustainable, or different, from what Guild has gone through before.

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Simply for the sake of building concensus, that's how it looked to me from the time I joined up til now.
Market drops when liquidations flood it, stabilizes when product becomes scarce again.
We should also see a flood (or a trickle at least) of "Legendary pre-Fender New Hartford Guilds"

If nothing else, there's certain to be hundreds of listings as "one of the very last New Hartford's off the line!"

I assume these responses are familiar to those heard after the closing of Westerly, then the closing of Corona, then the closing of Tacoma, and now the closing of New Hartford? It is interesting to see how short the pendulum swing really is for Guild.

Ridgemont said:

I assume these responses are familiar to those heard after the closing of Westerly, then the closing of Corona, then the closing of Tacoma, and now the closing of New Hartford? It is interesting to see how short the pendulum swing really is for Guild.

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Pretty much, yes, IMO.

To veer though, and cross pollinate from another thread, the new management at FMIC seems to have brand and retail management focus. I have blissfully forgotten all of the details but as I recall, GM restructured itself so it could shed its toxic debt, and then reworked the manufacturing side to the point that several iconic brands were gone. People lamented them at the time but GM is still in business selling cars. I don't see FMIC going bankrupt to shed the toxic debt, but I can imagine restructuring the debt and then an across the board restructuring of the FMIC product lines with the disappearance of some brand names. I can, for example, imagine a word where any acoustic guitar with a retail of less than $1000 is branded Fender no matter what the design or country of manufacture, $1000-$3000 is Guild (and heavily advertised as "Guild by Fender") and anything over that is made in a custom shop and they will put any logo on it that you are willing to pay for because it all comes from the FMIC Custom Shop.